CONFIRMED cases of the dreaded swine flu in South Africa have almost doubled since the start of the week with researchers predicting a dramatic rise in new infections in the Eastern and Southern Cape thanks to major sporting and cultural events in the region.

By late last night there were 54 laboratory-confirmed cases of swine flu, also known as the H1N1 virus, nationally – up from 30 cases on Monday, according to the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD).

Based on figures from the province‘s general clinical services division, DA provincial health spokesman Pine Pienaar said there were now eight confirmed cases of swine flu in the province – four in East London, two in Grahamstown and one each in Port Elizabeth and Port Alfred. However, Eastern Cape health department spokesman Sizwe Kupelo could only confirm seven.

The NICD has warned this figure could climb dramatically because of events such as the Billabong Pro surfing championship under way in Jeffreys Bay and the National Arts Festival ending in Grahamstown today. The two events have drawn tens of thousands of visitors – many from overseas – to the region.

This week an East London couple spoke of their nightmare ordeal after a family holiday in Thailand which saw their teenage daughter contract a severe case of swine flu and quarantined for six days.

Border tennis and hockey star Kelly Nel, 15, was forced to stay behind in a cramped hospital room in Singapore while her distraught mother, Ann, and sisters Lauren, 17, and Joanna, 13, had to return home.

Kelly‘s frantic father, Lofty, forced hospital staff to allow him to remain by her bedside in Singapore until she was discharged and allowed to return home late last week. This week the Clarendon High School pupil was recovering from her brush with the killer flu a few kilograms lighter and still weak, but no longer contagious with the virus which has affected 94000 people world wide.

Kelly‘s estate agent mom revealed that when she booked a “shopping holiday” to Bangkok and Singapore, the pandemic was the last thing on her mind.

“I‘m paranoid about germs ever since three of us picked up meningitis on a previous holiday and it was only when we arrived in Bangkok and watched CNN that we realised there was a problem.”

After shopping sprees in Bangkok, the Nels flew to Singapore for what was to be their last two days in Thailand, but when Kelly walked through the thermal scanner upon arrival at the airport, officials pulled her aside.

“They took her temperature which was 37,4°C. They said if her temperature had been 38°C they‘d have taken her straight to hospital,” said Ann.

“I thought perhaps she had normal flu because she had complained of a sore throat. I told her we would sort it out with Panado once we got to the hotel.”

But when her daughter‘s fever quickly intensified to 39,4°C the hotel manager advised them to take Kelly to a clinic.

“Lofty and Kelly got straight into a taxi and went to the hospital but she wasn‘t even allowed in through the front door because they suspected swine flu,” said Ann. “I got a fright when the hotel manager told me Kelly would be quarantined for six days because we were only meant to stay in Singapore for two days.”

She pleaded with the doctor to let the family fly home, but was told it would be illegal.

“Kelly was moved to the state hospital where her tests proved positive for swine flu,” she said. “My other daughters and I had to travel home without (Kelly and Lofty) ... It was a nightmare.”

Before she left Singapore, Ann had to supply Thai authorities with details of their flight between Bangkok and Singapore. Passengers five rows behind and five rows in front of the Nels were contacted.

Lofty, the principal agent for Sotheby‘s estate agency in East London, described the time he‘d spent in a tiny room with his sick daughter as “six days I never want to relive”. He said he had to “fight” with medical authorities to be allowed to stay with Kelly when she was whisked away to the Tantock Seng Hospital which has been turned into a quarantine centre for swine flu.

“I slept on the cement floor next to her bed,” Lofty recalled. He watched helplessly as doctors and specialists in protective gear battled to control Kelly‘s fever after she proved resistant to anti-viral Tamiflu, a drug being used globally to fight swine flu.

“On the fifth day she started responding to another drug and they eventually released us. We caught the first flight out, even though they tried to make us stay in a hotel for two more days. We just wanted to get home and are so relieved to be back,” he said.

The popular teen received hundreds of supportive SMS‘s after news of her condition spread via social networking website Facebook.

A 20-year-old Port Elizabeth student and two Rhodes University students, who all took part in the University Sports South Africa (USSA) tournament in Johannesburg last week, are among the Eastern Cape victims of the virus.

On Thursday Bay resident Catherine Richards, a sub-editor for Weekend Post and The Herald, was also rushed to Greenacres Hospital with suspected swine flu. Richards, who may have contracted the virus while holidaying in the UK, is taking Tamiflu and has been put into isolation at home. She will receive test results to confirm if she has the virus today.

NICD researchers believe most new infections are “likely to be mild because experience of other countries where large numbers of cases are recorded, as well as our own experience to date, is of mild illness”.

Dr Lucille Blumberg, head of the epidemiology division at the NICD, said the virus spread quickly and easily through droplets when coughing, sneezing or touching. “People are infectious days before symptoms show so they don‘t know they are ill. The time from infection to symptoms is one to seven days.”