THE 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 is a reminder of the impact of that tumultuous event on this country.

Among other things, it contributed significantly to the creation of a climate for the release of jailed ANC leader Nelson Mandela and other political prisoners, and one in which negotiations could take place leading to the adoption of an interim constitution, the advent of democracy through universal elections in April 1994 and the election of South Africa’s first black president.

In his State of the Nation address to Parliament on February 2, 1990 – less than three months after the Wall fell – when he announced the unbanning of the ANC, SA Communist Party and other bodies, and lifted the state of emergency, President FW de Klerk said: “Events in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe ... weaken the capability of organisations which were previously supported strongly from those quarters”.

Earlier, De Klerk had noted these developments “will entail unpredictable consequences for Europe, but will also be of decisive importance to Africa”.

He was right, although it was clear from the approach of the National Party to negotiations and the power-sharing scenarios it proposed, that he did not foresee just how “decisive” they would prove to be in the case of this country – particularly as far as his own party was concerned.

It would be wrong to believe events in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe and the fall of the Berlin Wall were the only factors that persuaded De Klerk to announce the momentous policy shifts in 1990. Factors such as the recognition that neither side could win what was essentially a low-level civil war internally and open conflict in neighbouring states, as well as the action of US banks, were also important elements that influenced De Klerk’s decision to embrace radical change, setting the scene for the end of white minority rule.

But, such was the obsession of the NP with rooi gevaar, which had been inculcated into generations of white South Africans, the impact of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe were immensely significant.

It will necessarily remain only a matter for speculation for historians, but it is questionable whether De Klerk would have been prepared to take the dramatic steps he did had those developments not taken place.